Kamala Harris edges out Trump in Pennsylvania, new poll reveals key gender gap as election heats up

In a significant development for the upcoming 2024 election, Vice President Kamala Harris has taken a narrow lead over former President Donald Trump in the critical battleground state of Pennsylvania, according to a recent USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll.

The survey, released today, shows Harris with a 49% to 46% advantage, a margin that falls within the poll’s margin of error of 4.4 points.

As Pennsylvania plays a pivotal role in the electoral landscape with its 19 electoral votes, both candidates are keenly aware of the importance of this state in their quest for 270 electoral votes.

The poll highlights the emerging gender gap in voter preferences, with Harris enjoying substantial support from women voters, leading Trump 56% to 39% among females. Meanwhile, Trump maintains a smaller edge among male voters, capturing 53% compared to Harris’ 41%.

The poll also reveals that Harris leads among independent voters by 5 points, with 43% favoring her over Trump’s 38%. Her personal favorability rating in Pennsylvania stands at 49%, surpassing Trump’s 43%. This favorable perception may be crucial as the election approaches.

In key bellwether counties, where historical voting patterns often predict the statewide outcome, Harris is making gains.

She leads in Erie County by 48% to 44% and in Northampton County by 50% to 45%. Notably, her strong performance among female voters extends into these regions, where she holds double-digit leads over Trump. Conversely, Trump’s advantage among male voters appears to be less pronounced.

Harris’ appeal is further enhanced by her support within the Latino community in Northampton County, where she leads Trump by a striking 60% to 25%.

Her strong debate performance last week, which even garnered acknowledgment from some Republican observers, seems to have bolstered her standing.

The widening gender gap presents a potentially decisive factor in the election, with Harris commanding nearly double the lead among women compared to Trump’s lead with men.

It’s essential to note that this poll was conducted after the recent debate and prior to an apparent assassination attempt on Trump, events that could influence voter sentiment. However, leading in a poll 49 days before the election does not guarantee victory. As the poll reflects only a snapshot of current trends, the dynamics of voter opinion can shift rapidly.

“The only poll that truly matters is on Election Day, November 5,” analysts remind. “Anyone writing off either Trump or Harris right now isn’t being realistic—both have a path to victory. The race is wide open, and it could go either way.” As the candidates prepare for the final stretch of the campaign, Pennsylvania remains an essential focal point in their strategies.