Harris surges ahead, post-debate momentum boosts lead over Trump in latest poll

In a striking development in the lead-up to the 2024 Presidential Election, Vice President Kamala Harris has surged ahead of former President Donald Trump in the latest Economist/YouGov poll, conducted from September 15-17, 2024.

The poll, which surveyed 1,445 registered U.S. voters and carries a margin of error of 3.2%, places Harris at a 49% preference rate compared to Trump’s 45%.

This four-point lead is significant for Harris, marking her largest margin since President Joe Biden exited the race in July, throwing his support behind her candidacy. It also represents the most considerable advantage any candidate has held since Biden’s five-point lead over Trump a year prior.

Harris’s recent post-debate bump has been a critical factor in her rising numbers, as she gained four percentage points following a strong showing during the debate on September 10.

This increase in support is particularly evident among key demographics that have historically been vital in swaying election outcomes. Notably, Harris’s support among millennial voters has climbed to 57%, up from 45% in July.

Her appeal among white voters has also strengthened, with support rising to 42% from 36%, and she has made significant inroads with male voters, who now show 47% support, up from 39%.

Moreover, Harris has seen a notable uptick in backing from Black and Hispanic voters. Her support among Black voters now stands at 78%, a substantial increase from 63% in July, while Hispanic voter support has risen to 60% from 44% over the same period.

Despite these gains, Trump maintains his strongest demographic support among white voters, with 52% favoring him, and those aged 65 and older, where he leads with 55%.

Harris’s lead aligns with national polling averages, with FiveThirtyEight indicating a 3.3 percentage point lead and RealClearPolitics showing a 2-point lead. Before the debate, these averages were narrower, with Harris leading by 2.5 and 1.1 points, respectively, underscoring the positive impact the debate performance has had on her campaign.