Harris surges ahead, leads Trump by 4 points in key battleground states, NYT/Siena Poll

U.S. Vice President and Democratic candidate Kamala Harris leads former President Donald Trump by four points in three critical battleground states—Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan—according to the latest New York Times/Siena College polls.

Harris stepped off Air Force Two at Joint Base Andrews in Maryland on July 25, 2024, with renewed energy and focus. The polls, conducted from August 5-9, reveal Harris ahead of Trump with 50% to his 46% among likely voters in each state. This lead comes as a crucial indicator as the November 5 election looms near.

The surveys involved 1,973 likely voters, with a margin of sampling error of ±4.8 points in Michigan, ±4.2 points in Pennsylvania, and ±4.3 points in Wisconsin.

The shift in the race follows Democratic President Joe Biden’s decision to end his reelection bid on July 21, endorsing Harris after a faltering debate performance against Trump in late June.

Harris’ entry has reinvigorated a campaign that had been struggling, especially amidst growing dissatisfaction with Biden’s handling of the Israel-Gaza conflict. The conflict, which has led to significant casualties and a humanitarian crisis, sparked large protests, particularly in Michigan among liberal, Muslim-American, and Arab-American groups.

Harris has made notable public statements on Palestinian human rights, signaling a tonal shift while maintaining policy continuity with Biden. This approach appears to have resonated with key voter demographics that were previously disillusioned.

Compounding the positive momentum for Harris, an Ipsos national poll released Thursday shows her leading Trump 42% to 37%. This online poll, conducted from August 2-7 with 2,045 U.S. adults, carries a margin of error of around 3 percentage points, further underscoring her growing lead.