And The New Public Advocate Is
By Robert Press
The weather Tuesday is forecast as nice, but turnout is expected to be extremely low in the Special Election for Public Advocate.
The race has been divided into two parts, the top ten candidates whom any one could win, and the other seven candidates who should have no effect on the outcome. Those seven include Manny Alicandro, David Eisenbach, Anthony Herbert, Jared Rich, Hetal Sheikh, Benjamin Yee, and Brooklyn Assemblywoman Latrice Walker who tried but failed to withdraw from the race, and her name is on the ballot. These seven candidates plus any write in votes should account to less than five percent of the vote.
The vote for the other ten candidates should go like this - Nomiki Konst, Ron Kim, Daniel O'Donnell, Rafael Espinal, Ydanis Rodriguez, Melissa Mark-Viverito, and Dawn Smalls each receiving between five and ten percent of the vote. With seventeen candidates in the race, if any of these can go over the ten percent mark they could, but most likely are not going to be the winner.
That leaves Jumaane Williams, Michael Blake, and Eric Ulrich all current elected officials from different boroughs, one of which is likely to be elected the next Public Advocate.
In further analysis of the special election and the candidates, while Jumaane Williams is from Brooklyn several other candidates come from that borough, and Michael Blake of the Bronx has been campaigning heavily in Brooklyn. Blake is from the Bronx where there has not been one citywide elected official from. Also splitting the Brooklyn vote is Dawn Smalls who either could be the winner or determine just who does win.
Councilman Eric Ulrich is the only Republican against sixteen Democrats, and if this was the general election he would be facing just one or even two Democrats (the second on a minor party line), and not sixteen. While the Democrats are fighting to get the same voters this gives Ulrich the advantage in this race, as all he has to do is get the Republican and Conservative voters of Queens, Staten Island, and the Bronx to vote for him. That strategy to victory was done many years ago by former Mayor Rudy Giuliani. Councilman Eric Ulrich as a Republican represents a district that is more than two thirds Democratic.
It should be noted that the New York Times endorsed Jumaane Williams, the New York Daily News endorsed Eric Ulrich, and the Parkchester Times (of the Bronx) has all but endorsed Michael Blake. This election is going to produce the winner with the lowest percentage of the vote. It is very likely that none of the seventeen candidates will break the twenty percent mark. I predict that the winner of this special election for Public Advocate will be Queens Councilman Eric Ulrich.
100 PERCENT is an independent political column, and is the views of the author Mr. Robert Press a well known political reporter with excellent credentials. You can e-mail him at firstname.lastname@example.org