India braces for above-average September rainfall

India is set to experience above-average rainfall this September, following a surplus in August, as confirmed by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Saturday.

The forecast predicts that rainfall could exceed 109% of the 50-year average, a significant increase that raises both hopes and concerns for the agricultural sector.

Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, the director-general of the IMD, stated during a virtual news conference, “The rainfall in September is likely to be more than 109% of a 50-year average.” This surge in precipitation could pose risks to summer-sown crops such as rice, cotton, soybean, corn, and pulses, which are typically harvested from mid-September onwards. The potential for crop damage due to excessive rainfall could lead to food inflation, a pressing concern for a nation already grappling with rising prices.

However, there is a silver lining to this forecast. The rain may enhance soil moisture, which could be beneficial for the planting of winter-sown crops, including wheat, rapeseed, and chickpea.

As the world’s second-largest producer of wheat, sugar, and rice, India has already imposed various export restrictions on these commodities. Should significant losses occur due to the anticipated rainfall, New Delhi may extend these curbs, further impacting global food supply chains.

India’s rainfall patterns have been notably robust this monsoon season, with the country recording 9% more rainfall in July and 15.3% above average in August. The northwestern and central regions experienced heavy downpours, which unfortunately led to flooding in some states. Since the monsoon season commenced on June 1, India has reported an overall 6.9% increase in rainfall compared to the historical average.

The annual monsoon is crucial for India’s $3.5 trillion economy, providing nearly 70% of the rain necessary for agricultural activities and replenishing vital reservoirs and aquifers. With approximately half of the country’s farmland reliant on these seasonal rains, the monsoon season, which typically spans from June to September, is a lifeline for millions of farmers.

As the season progresses, the monsoon usually begins to retreat by mid-September, starting in the northwestern state of Rajasthan and concluding nationwide by mid-October. However, the current forecast indicates a potential delay in this withdrawal. “Forecast for September suggests that good rainfall activity over Rajasthan and Gujarat starts about 15th September. Nowadays, if you look at, the withdrawal is getting delayed,” Mohapatra noted.

With summer-sown crops nearing harvest by mid-September, the timing of this rainfall could be critical. A Mumbai-based dealer with a global trade house warned, “Rainfall during this time could damage the ripe crops,” underscoring the delicate balance between beneficial moisture and the risks of excess.

Reuters